Refactor: 4 echte Strategien + cross-strategy Quality Score (Eurojackpot)
Strategien ersetzt: - PURE-AI → BALANCED-SPREAD: erzwingt L≥1 M≥1 H≥1, max. 1 Consecutive Pair - PURE-PATTERN → HIGH-EV: 2 Zahlen >31, max. 1 Lucky Number, soft Consecutive-Penalty - ENSEMBLE → SOFT-CONTRARIAN: Recency-Boost (letzte 30 Ziehungen), Zone-Balance - HYBRID-OPT: unverändert Quality Score jetzt strategieübergreifend (6 Perspektiven): Main-AI×0.25 + Euro×0.15 + Pattern×0.15 + Diversity×0.10 + Popularity×0.20 + Recency×0.15 Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
Claude Sonnet 4.6
@@ -496,6 +496,27 @@
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"file": "weekly_tips_20260626_141210.csv",
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"avg_confidence": 0.45829977009199985,
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"avg_quality": 0.5822532698964943
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},
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{
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"timestamp": "2026-06-29T21:03:34.292807",
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"num_tips": 10,
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"file": "weekly_tips_20260629_210334.csv",
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"avg_confidence": 0.4467334616642155,
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"avg_quality": 0.5674017728578733
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},
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{
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"timestamp": "2026-07-02T21:06:12.208802",
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"num_tips": 10,
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"file": "weekly_tips_20260702_210612.csv",
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"avg_confidence": 0.48294321323816025,
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"avg_quality": 0.6035966436446752
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},
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{
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"timestamp": "2026-07-04T16:58:30.880781",
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"num_tips": 10,
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"file": "weekly_tips_20260704_165830.csv",
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"avg_confidence": 0.5226028457900052,
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"avg_quality": 0.5218641480233097
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}
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]
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}
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@@ -109,12 +109,12 @@ class UltimateAIMLEurojackpotGenerator:
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self.real_time_learner = EurojackpotRealTimeLearner(cache_path=self.model_cache_path) # Mit Persistenz
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self.performance_tracker = EurojackpotPerformanceTracker()
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# Strategy Management (optimiert basierend auf Performance-Tests)
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# Strategy Management: 4 echte Strategien mit echter Differenzierung
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self.strategy_weights = {
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'pure_ai': 0.25, # Reduziert: 30% → 25%
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'pure_pattern': 0.15, # Reduziert: 25% → 15% (schwächste Strategie)
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'hybrid_optimized': 0.40, # Erhöht: 30% → 40% (beste Strategie)
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'ensemble_best': 0.20 # Erhöht: 15% → 20%
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'hybrid_optimized': 0.40, # AI + Pattern Optimierung (bester Baseline)
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'balanced_spread': 0.30, # Erzwingt L≥1 M≥1 H≥1 aus Top-Mustern
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'high_ev': 0.20, # EV-Optimierung: 2 Zahlen >31, wenig Lucky
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'soft_contrarian': 0.10, # Bevorzugt unterrepräsentierte Zahlen (letzte 30)
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}
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self.is_trained = False
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@@ -230,7 +230,10 @@ class UltimateAIMLEurojackpotGenerator:
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main_predictions = self.real_time_learner.adjust_main_predictions(main_predictions)
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euro_predictions = self.real_time_learner.adjust_euro_predictions(euro_predictions)
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print("✅")
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# Recency-Counts für Soft-Contrarian vorberechnen
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self._recency_counts = self._compute_recency_counts(30)
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# Determine Strategy Distribution
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distribution = self._calculate_strategy_distribution(num_tips)
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@@ -332,115 +335,230 @@ class UltimateAIMLEurojackpotGenerator:
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for i in range(count):
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tip_number = start_number + i
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if strategy == 'pure_ai':
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tip = self._generate_pure_ai_tip(tip_number, main_preds, euro_preds)
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elif strategy == 'pure_pattern':
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tip = self._generate_pure_pattern_tip(tip_number, main_preds, euro_preds)
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elif strategy == 'hybrid_optimized':
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if strategy == 'hybrid_optimized':
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tip = self._generate_hybrid_tip(tip_number, main_preds, euro_preds)
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else: # ensemble_best
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tip = self._generate_ensemble_tip(tip_number, main_preds, euro_preds)
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elif strategy == 'balanced_spread':
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tip = self._generate_balanced_spread_tip(tip_number, main_preds, euro_preds)
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elif strategy == 'high_ev':
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tip = self._generate_high_ev_tip(tip_number, main_preds, euro_preds)
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else: # soft_contrarian
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tip = self._generate_soft_contrarian_tip(tip_number, main_preds, euro_preds)
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tips.append(tip)
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return tips
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def _generate_pure_ai_tip(self, tip_number, main_preds, euro_preds):
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"""Pure AI Strategie."""
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random.seed(42 + tip_number * 13)
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# Main numbers
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sorted_main = sorted(main_preds.items(), key=lambda x: x[1], reverse=True)
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top_candidates = [num for num, score in sorted_main[:35]]
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def _generate_balanced_spread_tip(self, tip_number, main_preds, euro_preds):
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"""Balanced Spread: erzwingt L≥1 M≥1 H≥1, AI-gewichtet, max. 1 Consecutive Pair."""
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random.seed(42 + tip_number * 37)
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# 3 Zonen für EJ (1-50, 5 Zahlen)
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zones = {
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'L': list(range(1, 18)), # 1-17
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'M': list(range(18, 35)), # 18-34
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'H': list(range(35, 51)) # 35-50
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}
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# Muster mit allen 3 Zonen (je 5 Zahlen auf 3 Zonen verteilt)
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valid_patterns = [
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('L', 'L', 'M', 'H', 'H'), # ~LLMHH
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('L', 'M', 'M', 'H', 'H'), # ~LMMHH
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('L', 'L', 'M', 'M', 'H'), # ~LLMMH
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('L', 'M', 'H', 'H', 'H'), # ~LMHHH
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('L', 'L', 'L', 'M', 'H'), # ~LLLMH
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]
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target_zones = valid_patterns[tip_number % len(valid_patterns)]
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zone_counts = Counter(target_zones)
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selected_main = []
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for position in range(5):
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candidates = [n for n in top_candidates if n not in selected_main]
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if not candidates:
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candidates = [n for n in range(1, 51) if n not in selected_main]
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if candidates:
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weights = [main_preds.get(c, 0.1) + random.random() * 0.15 for c in candidates]
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if selected_main:
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for i, c in enumerate(candidates):
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diversity = self._calculate_diversity_score(c, selected_main)
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weights[i] *= (1 + diversity * 0.3)
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choice = random.choices(candidates, weights=weights)[0]
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for zone_char, count in zone_counts.items():
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available = [n for n in zones[zone_char] if n not in selected_main]
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weights = [main_preds.get(n, 0.1) for n in available]
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for _ in range(count):
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if not available:
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break
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choice = random.choices(available, weights=weights)[0]
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selected_main.append(choice)
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idx = available.index(choice)
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available.pop(idx)
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weights.pop(idx)
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selected_main = sorted(selected_main)
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# Euro numbers
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sorted_euro = sorted(euro_preds.items(), key=lambda x: x[1], reverse=True)
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top_euro = [num for num, score in sorted_euro[:8]]
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selected_euro = []
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for position in range(2):
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candidates = [n for n in top_euro if n not in selected_euro]
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if not candidates:
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candidates = [n for n in range(1, 13) if n not in selected_euro]
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if candidates:
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weights = [euro_preds.get(c, 0.1) + random.random() * 0.1 for c in candidates]
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choice = random.choices(candidates, weights=weights)[0]
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selected_euro.append(choice)
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selected_euro = sorted(selected_euro)
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# Scores
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# Soft consecutive reduction: max 1 Paar
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for _ in range(5):
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consec = sum(1 for i in range(len(selected_main) - 1) if selected_main[i + 1] - selected_main[i] == 1)
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if consec <= 1:
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break
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for i in range(len(selected_main) - 1):
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if selected_main[i + 1] - selected_main[i] == 1:
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n = selected_main[i + 1]
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zone_char = 'L' if n <= 17 else 'M' if n <= 34 else 'H'
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alts = [x for x in zones[zone_char] if x not in selected_main
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and abs(x - selected_main[i]) > 1
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and (i + 2 >= len(selected_main) or abs(x - selected_main[i + 2]) > 1)]
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if alts:
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selected_main[i + 1] = random.choices(alts, weights=[main_preds.get(x, 0.1) for x in alts])[0]
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selected_main = sorted(selected_main)
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break
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# Soft sum range (EJ Q1-Q3: 107-150)
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for _ in range(5):
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s = sum(selected_main)
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if 107 <= s <= 150:
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break
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if s < 107:
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alts = [x for x in range(selected_main[0] + 1, 51) if x not in selected_main]
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if alts:
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selected_main[0] = random.choices(alts, weights=[main_preds.get(x, 0.1) for x in alts])[0]
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selected_main = sorted(selected_main)
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else:
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alts = [x for x in range(1, selected_main[-1]) if x not in selected_main]
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if alts:
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selected_main[-1] = random.choices(alts, weights=[main_preds.get(x, 0.1) for x in alts])[0]
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selected_main = sorted(selected_main)
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selected_euro = self._get_smart_euro_numbers(tip_number, euro_preds)
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main_ai_score = np.mean([main_preds.get(n, 0.1) for n in selected_main])
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euro_ai_score = np.mean([euro_preds.get(n, 0.1) for n in selected_euro])
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pattern_weight = self.pattern_engine.calculate_pattern_weight(selected_main)
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confidence = main_ai_score * 0.5 + euro_ai_score * 0.3 + pattern_weight * 0.2
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confidence = main_ai_score * 0.6 + euro_ai_score * 0.2 + pattern_weight * 0.2
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quality = self._calculate_quality_score(selected_main, selected_euro, main_preds, euro_preds, pattern_weight)
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return {
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'tip_number': tip_number,
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'main_numbers': selected_main,
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'euro_numbers': selected_euro,
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'strategy': 'PURE-AI',
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'strategy': 'BALANCED-SPREAD',
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'main_ai_score': main_ai_score,
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'euro_ai_score': euro_ai_score,
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'pattern_weight': pattern_weight,
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'confidence': confidence,
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'quality': quality
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}
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def _generate_pure_pattern_tip(self, tip_number, main_preds, euro_preds):
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"""Pure Pattern Strategie."""
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random.seed(42 + tip_number * 17)
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# Main numbers mit Pattern
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top_patterns = self.pattern_engine.get_top_patterns(10)
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target_pattern = top_patterns[tip_number % len(top_patterns)] if top_patterns else 'NNMMH'
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selected_main = self.pattern_engine.generate_for_pattern(target_pattern, tip_number)
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# Euro numbers - frequency based
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def _generate_high_ev_tip(self, tip_number, main_preds, euro_preds):
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"""High-EV: 2 Zahlen >31, max. 1 Lucky Number, soft Consecutive-Vermeidung."""
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random.seed(42 + tip_number * 41)
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lucky_numbers = {3, 7, 9, 11, 13, 17, 19, 21, 23}
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above_31_target = 2 # für 5 Zahlen: 2 above-31 = solide EV-Basis
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selected_main = []
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# Zahlen >31 zuerst wählen (ohne Consecutives)
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above_pool = list(range(32, 51))
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above_weights = [main_preds.get(n, 0.1) for n in above_pool]
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for _ in range(above_31_target):
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if not above_pool:
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break
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choice = random.choices(above_pool, weights=above_weights)[0]
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selected_main.append(choice)
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new_pool, new_weights = [], []
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for n, w in zip(above_pool, above_weights):
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if n != choice and abs(n - choice) > 1:
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new_pool.append(n)
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new_weights.append(w)
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above_pool, above_weights = new_pool, new_weights
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# Zahlen ≤31 wählen (max. 1 Lucky, soft Consecutive-Penalty)
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below_pool = list(range(1, 32))
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lucky_picked = 0
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for _ in range(5 - above_31_target):
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if not below_pool:
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break
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weights = []
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for n in below_pool:
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w = main_preds.get(n, 0.1)
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if n in lucky_numbers:
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w *= (0.2 if lucky_picked >= 1 else 0.6)
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if any(abs(n - s) == 1 for s in selected_main):
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w *= 0.25
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weights.append(max(0.001, w))
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choice = random.choices(below_pool, weights=weights)[0]
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if choice in lucky_numbers:
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lucky_picked += 1
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selected_main.append(choice)
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below_pool = [n for n in below_pool if n != choice]
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selected_main = sorted(selected_main)
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selected_euro = self._get_smart_euro_numbers(tip_number, euro_preds)
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# Scores
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pattern_weight = self.pattern_engine.calculate_pattern_weight(selected_main)
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main_ai_score = np.mean([main_preds.get(n, 0.1) for n in selected_main])
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euro_ai_score = np.mean([euro_preds.get(n, 0.1) for n in selected_euro])
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confidence = pattern_weight * 0.6 + main_ai_score * 0.25 + euro_ai_score * 0.15
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pattern_weight = self.pattern_engine.calculate_pattern_weight(selected_main)
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pop_score = self._calculate_popularity_score(selected_main)
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confidence = main_ai_score * 0.4 + euro_ai_score * 0.2 + pattern_weight * 0.1 + pop_score * 0.3
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quality = self._calculate_quality_score(selected_main, selected_euro, main_preds, euro_preds, pattern_weight)
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return {
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'tip_number': tip_number,
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'main_numbers': selected_main,
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'euro_numbers': selected_euro,
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'strategy': 'PURE-PATTERN',
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'strategy': 'HIGH-EV',
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'main_ai_score': main_ai_score,
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'euro_ai_score': euro_ai_score,
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'pattern_weight': pattern_weight,
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'confidence': confidence,
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'quality': quality,
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'target_pattern': target_pattern
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'quality': quality
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}
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def _generate_soft_contrarian_tip(self, tip_number, main_preds, euro_preds):
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"""Soft Contrarian: bevorzugt Zahlen die in letzten 30 Ziehungen unterrepräsentiert waren."""
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random.seed(42 + tip_number * 43)
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expected_freq = 30 * 5 / 50 # ~3.0 Vorkommen pro Zahl erwartet
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selected_main = []
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for _ in range(5):
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candidates = [n for n in range(1, 51) if n not in selected_main]
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selected_zones = {'L' if s <= 17 else 'M' if s <= 34 else 'H' for s in selected_main}
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weights = []
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for c in candidates:
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ai_s = main_preds.get(c, 0.1)
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actual = self._recency_counts.get(c, 0)
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recency_s = max(0.0, (expected_freq - actual) / expected_freq)
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zone_char = 'L' if c <= 17 else 'M' if c <= 34 else 'H'
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zone_s = 0.8 if zone_char not in selected_zones else 0.4
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weights.append(max(0.001, ai_s * 0.5 + recency_s * 0.3 + zone_s * 0.2))
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choice = random.choices(candidates, weights=weights)[0]
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selected_main.append(choice)
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selected_main = sorted(selected_main)
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selected_euro = self._get_smart_euro_numbers(tip_number, euro_preds)
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main_ai_score = np.mean([main_preds.get(n, 0.1) for n in selected_main])
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euro_ai_score = np.mean([euro_preds.get(n, 0.1) for n in selected_euro])
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pattern_weight = self.pattern_engine.calculate_pattern_weight(selected_main)
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recency_avg = np.mean([
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max(0.0, (expected_freq - self._recency_counts.get(n, 0)) / expected_freq)
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for n in selected_main
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])
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confidence = main_ai_score * 0.4 + euro_ai_score * 0.2 + pattern_weight * 0.2 + recency_avg * 0.2
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quality = self._calculate_quality_score(selected_main, selected_euro, main_preds, euro_preds, pattern_weight)
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return {
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'tip_number': tip_number,
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'main_numbers': selected_main,
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'euro_numbers': selected_euro,
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'strategy': 'SOFT-CONTRARIAN',
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'main_ai_score': main_ai_score,
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'euro_ai_score': euro_ai_score,
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'pattern_weight': pattern_weight,
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'confidence': confidence,
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'quality': quality
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}
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def _compute_recency_counts(self, lookback=30):
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"""Zählt Vorkommen jeder Hauptzahl in den letzten N Ziehungen."""
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recent = self.df.tail(lookback)
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counts = Counter()
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for _, row in recent.iterrows():
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for col in ['Z1', 'Z2', 'Z3', 'Z4', 'Z5']:
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counts[int(row[col])] += 1
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return counts
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def _generate_hybrid_tip(self, tip_number, main_preds, euro_preds):
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"""Hybrid Strategie."""
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result = self.hybrid_optimizer.optimize(tip_number, main_preds, euro_preds)
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@@ -462,63 +580,6 @@ class UltimateAIMLEurojackpotGenerator:
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'quality': quality
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}
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def _generate_ensemble_tip(self, tip_number, main_preds, euro_preds):
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"""Ensemble Strategie."""
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random.seed(42 + tip_number * 23)
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# Main numbers - ensemble approach
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sorted_main = sorted(main_preds.items(), key=lambda x: x[1], reverse=True)
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ai_candidates = [num for num, score in sorted_main[:25]]
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top_patterns = self.pattern_engine.get_top_patterns(3)
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pattern_candidates = []
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for pattern in top_patterns[:2]:
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pcands = self.pattern_engine.generate_for_pattern(pattern, tip_number)
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pattern_candidates.extend(pcands)
|
||||
|
||||
all_candidates = list(set(ai_candidates + pattern_candidates))
|
||||
|
||||
selected_main = []
|
||||
for position in range(5):
|
||||
candidates = [c for c in all_candidates if c not in selected_main]
|
||||
if not candidates:
|
||||
candidates = [n for n in range(1, 51) if n not in selected_main]
|
||||
|
||||
scores = []
|
||||
for c in candidates:
|
||||
ai_s = main_preds.get(c, 0.1)
|
||||
pattern_s = self.pattern_engine.get_number_pattern_score(c)
|
||||
diversity_s = self._calculate_diversity_score(c, selected_main) if selected_main else 0.5
|
||||
scores.append(ai_s * 0.4 + pattern_s * 0.3 + diversity_s * 0.3)
|
||||
|
||||
# Gewichtete Zufallsauswahl: Qualität bleibt hoch, Duplikate werden vermieden
|
||||
choice = random.choices(candidates, weights=scores)[0]
|
||||
selected_main.append(choice)
|
||||
|
||||
selected_main = sorted(selected_main[:5])
|
||||
|
||||
# Euro numbers - best from AI
|
||||
selected_euro = self._get_smart_euro_numbers(tip_number, euro_preds)
|
||||
|
||||
# Scores
|
||||
main_ai_score = np.mean([main_preds.get(n, 0.1) for n in selected_main])
|
||||
euro_ai_score = np.mean([euro_preds.get(n, 0.1) for n in selected_euro])
|
||||
pattern_weight = self.pattern_engine.calculate_pattern_weight(selected_main)
|
||||
confidence = (main_ai_score * 0.4 + euro_ai_score * 0.3 + pattern_weight * 0.3)
|
||||
quality = self._calculate_quality_score(selected_main, selected_euro, main_preds, euro_preds, pattern_weight)
|
||||
|
||||
return {
|
||||
'tip_number': tip_number,
|
||||
'main_numbers': selected_main,
|
||||
'euro_numbers': selected_euro,
|
||||
'strategy': 'ENSEMBLE',
|
||||
'main_ai_score': main_ai_score,
|
||||
'euro_ai_score': euro_ai_score,
|
||||
'pattern_weight': pattern_weight,
|
||||
'confidence': confidence,
|
||||
'quality': quality
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
def _passes_structural_constraints(self, main_numbers):
|
||||
"""Prüft Summenbereich und Parität."""
|
||||
s = sum(main_numbers)
|
||||
@@ -648,29 +709,46 @@ class UltimateAIMLEurojackpotGenerator:
|
||||
return min(max(score, 0.0), 1.0)
|
||||
|
||||
def _calculate_quality_score(self, main_numbers, euro_numbers, main_preds, euro_preds, pattern_weight):
|
||||
"""Berechnet Qualität."""
|
||||
# Main quality
|
||||
"""Berechnet Qualitäts-Score aus allen 5 Strategie-Perspektiven."""
|
||||
# HYBRID-OPT Perspektive: AI-Score gewichtet mit Streuung
|
||||
main_scores = [main_preds.get(n, 0.1) for n in main_numbers]
|
||||
main_quality = np.mean(main_scores) * (1 + np.std(main_scores) * 0.5)
|
||||
|
||||
# Euro quality
|
||||
# Euro-Qualität (separates Signal)
|
||||
euro_scores = [euro_preds.get(n, 0.1) for n in euro_numbers]
|
||||
euro_quality = np.mean(euro_scores)
|
||||
|
||||
# Pattern quality
|
||||
# BALANCED-SPREAD Perspektive: historisches Mustergewicht
|
||||
pattern_quality = pattern_weight
|
||||
|
||||
# Diversity
|
||||
# Zonenspreizung: mittlere paarweise Distanz
|
||||
distances = []
|
||||
for i, n1 in enumerate(main_numbers):
|
||||
for n2 in main_numbers[i+1:]:
|
||||
distances.append(abs(n1 - n2))
|
||||
diversity_quality = min(np.mean(distances) / 10.0, 1.0) if distances else 0.5
|
||||
|
||||
# Popularity (EV-Vorteil bei Gewinn)
|
||||
# HIGH-EV Perspektive: Popularitäts-/EV-Score
|
||||
popularity_quality = self._calculate_popularity_score(main_numbers)
|
||||
|
||||
quality = (main_quality * 0.35 + euro_quality * 0.2 + pattern_quality * 0.15 + diversity_quality * 0.1 + popularity_quality * 0.2)
|
||||
# SOFT-CONTRARIAN Perspektive: Recency-Score
|
||||
if hasattr(self, '_recency_counts'):
|
||||
expected_freq = 30 * 5 / 50
|
||||
recency_quality = np.mean([
|
||||
max(0.0, (expected_freq - self._recency_counts.get(n, 0)) / expected_freq)
|
||||
for n in main_numbers
|
||||
])
|
||||
else:
|
||||
recency_quality = 0.5
|
||||
|
||||
quality = (
|
||||
main_quality * 0.25
|
||||
+ euro_quality * 0.15
|
||||
+ pattern_quality * 0.15
|
||||
+ diversity_quality * 0.10
|
||||
+ popularity_quality * 0.20
|
||||
+ recency_quality * 0.15
|
||||
)
|
||||
return min(quality, 1.0)
|
||||
|
||||
def _print_tip_line(self, tip):
|
||||
@@ -730,12 +808,12 @@ class UltimateAIMLEurojackpotGenerator:
|
||||
strategy_avg = {}
|
||||
total = 0
|
||||
|
||||
for strategy in ['pure_ai', 'pure_pattern', 'hybrid_optimized', 'ensemble_best']:
|
||||
for strategy in ['hybrid_optimized', 'balanced_spread', 'high_ev', 'soft_contrarian']:
|
||||
strategy_key = {
|
||||
'pure_ai': 'PURE-AI',
|
||||
'pure_pattern': 'PURE-PATTERN',
|
||||
'hybrid_optimized': 'HYBRID-OPT',
|
||||
'ensemble_best': 'ENSEMBLE'
|
||||
'balanced_spread': 'BALANCED-SPREAD',
|
||||
'high_ev': 'HIGH-EV',
|
||||
'soft_contrarian': 'SOFT-CONTRARIAN'
|
||||
}[strategy]
|
||||
|
||||
if strategy_key in strategy_performance:
|
||||
@@ -1826,7 +1904,7 @@ def main():
|
||||
|
||||
print("\n💡 EUROJACKPOT ADVANTAGES:")
|
||||
print(" 🎰 5 aus 50 + 2 aus 12 optimiert")
|
||||
print(" 🔬 4 Strategien: Pure-AI, Pure-Pattern, Hybrid, Ensemble")
|
||||
print(" 🔬 4 Strategien: Hybrid-OPT, Balanced-Spread, High-EV, Soft-Contrarian")
|
||||
print(" 🧠 Separate AI für Hauptzahlen + Eurozahlen")
|
||||
print(" 🎨 Pattern-Analyse für 5er-Kombinationen")
|
||||
print(" ⚡ Multi-Objective Optimization")
|
||||
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user