Add comprehensive performance analysis with key insights
Performance Analysis Results (90 clean trades): Overall Performance: - Win Rate: 67.8% (61/90) - Total Profit: $8,305.78 - Profit Factor: 4.19 - Avg Profit/Trade: $92.29 - Max Drawdown: -12.1% KEY INSIGHT: Lot Size Reduction Success - BEFORE (Nov 27 - Dec 4): 0.07-0.10 Lot → 0% WR, -$1,062 loss - AFTER (Dec 10+): 0.01 Lot → 100% WR, +$9,368 profit - Change was made Dec 4, results improved dramatically! Session Performance: - Asian: 97.8% WR, $150.93/trade (EXCELLENT!) 🌟 - NY: 46.4% WR, $53.16/trade (profitable but low WR) - London: 12.5% WR (correctly blocked) - Overlap: 14.3% WR (correctly blocked) Confidence Analysis: - 95-100%: 74.4% WR, 82 trades ✅ - 90-94%: 0% WR, 4 trades (all losses) - 85-89%: 0% WR, 4 trades (all losses) - Recommendation: Keep threshold at 95%+ (current excellent quality) Monthly Trend: - November: 6 trades, 0% WR, -$283 (testing phase) - December: 84 trades, 72.6% WR, +$8,589 (optimized!) Recommendations: 1. Keep current lot size (0.01) - working perfectly 2. Asian session is best performer (97.8% WR) 3. Current confidence threshold (95%+) is optimal 4. London/Overlap correctly blocked 5. System is well-optimized after December changes
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#!/usr/bin/env python3
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"""
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📊 Performance Analysis - Clean Data
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Umfassende Analyse mit bereinigten Daten
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"""
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import sqlite3
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import pandas as pd
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from datetime import datetime
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import numpy as np
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conn = sqlite3.connect('trading_bot.db')
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print('=' * 80)
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print('📊 PERFORMANCE ANALYSE - Mit sauberen Daten')
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print('=' * 80)
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print(f'Datum: {datetime.now().strftime("%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S")}')
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print()
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# ==========================================
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# 1. GESAMT-PERFORMANCE
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# ==========================================
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print('1️⃣ GESAMT-PERFORMANCE')
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print('-' * 80)
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overall = pd.read_sql_query('''
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SELECT
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COUNT(*) as total_trades,
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SUM(CASE WHEN net_profit > 0 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) as wins,
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SUM(CASE WHEN net_profit < 0 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) as losses,
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SUM(CASE WHEN net_profit = 0 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) as breakeven,
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ROUND(SUM(net_profit), 2) as total_profit,
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ROUND(AVG(net_profit), 2) as avg_profit_per_trade,
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ROUND(AVG(CASE WHEN net_profit > 0 THEN net_profit END), 2) as avg_win,
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ROUND(AVG(CASE WHEN net_profit < 0 THEN net_profit END), 2) as avg_loss,
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ROUND(MAX(net_profit), 2) as best_trade,
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ROUND(MIN(net_profit), 2) as worst_trade,
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MIN(entry_time) as first_trade,
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MAX(entry_time) as last_trade
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FROM trades
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''', conn)
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total = overall['total_trades'][0]
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wins = overall['wins'][0]
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losses = overall['losses'][0]
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win_rate = (wins / total * 100) if total > 0 else 0
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avg_win = overall['avg_win'][0]
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avg_loss = overall['avg_loss'][0]
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profit_factor = abs(avg_win / avg_loss) if avg_loss != 0 else 0
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expectancy = (win_rate/100 * avg_win) + ((100-win_rate)/100 * avg_loss)
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print(f'Total Trades: {total}')
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print(f'Zeitraum: {overall["first_trade"][0]} bis {overall["last_trade"][0]}')
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print()
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print(f'Wins: {wins} ({win_rate:.1f}%)')
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print(f'Losses: {losses} ({(losses/total*100):.1f}%)')
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print(f'Breakeven: {overall["breakeven"][0]}')
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print()
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print(f'Total Profit: ${overall["total_profit"][0]:,.2f}')
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print(f'Avg Profit/Trade: ${overall["avg_profit_per_trade"][0]:.2f}')
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print()
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print(f'Avg Win: ${avg_win:.2f}')
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print(f'Avg Loss: ${avg_loss:.2f}')
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print(f'Profit Factor: {profit_factor:.2f}')
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print(f'Expectancy: ${expectancy:.2f}/Trade')
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print()
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print(f'Best Trade: ${overall["best_trade"][0]:.2f}')
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print(f'Worst Trade: ${overall["worst_trade"][0]:.2f}')
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print()
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# ==========================================
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# 2. SESSION PERFORMANCE
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# ==========================================
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print('=' * 80)
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print('2️⃣ SESSION PERFORMANCE (sortiert nach Profit/Trade)')
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print('-' * 80)
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session_perf = pd.read_sql_query('''
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SELECT
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session,
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COUNT(*) as trades,
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SUM(CASE WHEN net_profit > 0 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) as wins,
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SUM(CASE WHEN net_profit < 0 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) as losses,
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ROUND(AVG(confidence), 1) as avg_conf,
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ROUND(SUM(net_profit), 2) as total_profit,
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ROUND(AVG(net_profit), 2) as avg_profit,
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ROUND(MAX(net_profit), 2) as best,
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ROUND(MIN(net_profit), 2) as worst
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FROM trades
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GROUP BY session
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ORDER BY avg_profit DESC
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''', conn)
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session_perf['win_rate'] = (session_perf['wins'] / session_perf['trades'] * 100).round(1)
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print(session_perf.to_string(index=False))
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print()
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# ==========================================
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# 3. QUALITY PERFORMANCE
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# ==========================================
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print('=' * 80)
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print('3️⃣ SIGNAL QUALITY PERFORMANCE')
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print('-' * 80)
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quality_perf = pd.read_sql_query('''
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SELECT
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quality,
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COUNT(*) as trades,
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ROUND(MIN(confidence), 1) as min_conf,
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ROUND(AVG(confidence), 1) as avg_conf,
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ROUND(MAX(confidence), 1) as max_conf,
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SUM(CASE WHEN net_profit > 0 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) as wins,
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SUM(CASE WHEN net_profit < 0 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) as losses,
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ROUND(SUM(net_profit), 2) as total_profit,
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ROUND(AVG(net_profit), 2) as avg_profit
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FROM trades
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WHERE quality IS NOT NULL
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GROUP BY quality
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ORDER BY avg_conf DESC
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''', conn)
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quality_perf['win_rate'] = (quality_perf['wins'] / quality_perf['trades'] * 100).round(1)
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print(quality_perf.to_string(index=False))
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print()
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# ==========================================
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# 4. CONFIDENCE BANDS ANALYSE
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# ==========================================
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print('=' * 80)
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print('4️⃣ CONFIDENCE BANDS ANALYSE (wichtig für Adaptive Sizing!)')
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print('-' * 80)
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confidence_bands = pd.read_sql_query('''
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SELECT
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CASE
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WHEN confidence >= 95 THEN '95-100% (Excellent)'
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WHEN confidence >= 90 THEN '90-94% (Very Strong)'
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WHEN confidence >= 85 THEN '85-89% (Strong)'
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WHEN confidence >= 80 THEN '80-84% (High)'
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WHEN confidence >= 75 THEN '75-79% (Good)'
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WHEN confidence >= 70 THEN '70-74% (Medium)'
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ELSE '<70% (Low)'
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END as conf_band,
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COUNT(*) as trades,
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ROUND(AVG(confidence), 1) as avg_conf,
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SUM(CASE WHEN net_profit > 0 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) as wins,
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ROUND(SUM(net_profit), 2) as total_profit,
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ROUND(AVG(net_profit), 2) as avg_profit
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FROM trades
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WHERE confidence IS NOT NULL
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GROUP BY conf_band
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ORDER BY avg_conf DESC
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''', conn)
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confidence_bands['win_rate'] = (confidence_bands['wins'] / confidence_bands['trades'] * 100).round(1)
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print(confidence_bands.to_string(index=False))
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print()
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# ==========================================
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# 5. VOLUME ANALYSE
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# ==========================================
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print('=' * 80)
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print('5️⃣ VOLUME (LOT SIZE) ANALYSE')
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print('-' * 80)
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volume_stats = pd.read_sql_query('''
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SELECT
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volume,
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COUNT(*) as trades,
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ROUND(AVG(confidence), 1) as avg_conf,
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SUM(CASE WHEN net_profit > 0 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) as wins,
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ROUND(SUM(net_profit), 2) as total_profit,
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ROUND(AVG(net_profit), 2) as avg_profit
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FROM trades
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GROUP BY volume
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ORDER BY volume DESC
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''', conn)
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volume_stats['win_rate'] = (volume_stats['wins'] / volume_stats['trades'] * 100).round(1)
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print(volume_stats.to_string(index=False))
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print()
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# ==========================================
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# 6. MONATLICHE PERFORMANCE
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# ==========================================
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print('=' * 80)
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print('6️⃣ MONATLICHE PERFORMANCE')
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print('-' * 80)
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monthly = pd.read_sql_query('''
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SELECT
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strftime('%Y-%m', entry_time) as month,
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COUNT(*) as trades,
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SUM(CASE WHEN net_profit > 0 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) as wins,
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ROUND(SUM(net_profit), 2) as profit,
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ROUND(AVG(net_profit), 2) as avg_profit
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FROM trades
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GROUP BY month
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ORDER BY month DESC
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''', conn)
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monthly['win_rate'] = (monthly['wins'] / monthly['trades'] * 100).round(1)
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print(monthly.to_string(index=False))
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print()
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# ==========================================
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# 7. DRAWDOWN ANALYSE
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# ==========================================
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print('=' * 80)
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print('7️⃣ DRAWDOWN & EQUITY CURVE')
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print('-' * 80)
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trades_timeline = pd.read_sql_query('''
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SELECT
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DATE(entry_time) as date,
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net_profit
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FROM trades
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ORDER BY entry_time
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''', conn)
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# Calculate cumulative profit
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trades_timeline['cumulative_profit'] = trades_timeline['net_profit'].cumsum()
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trades_timeline['running_max'] = trades_timeline['cumulative_profit'].cummax()
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trades_timeline['drawdown'] = trades_timeline['cumulative_profit'] - trades_timeline['running_max']
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max_dd = trades_timeline['drawdown'].min()
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max_dd_pct = (max_dd / trades_timeline['running_max'].max() * 100) if trades_timeline['running_max'].max() > 0 else 0
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print(f'Max Drawdown: ${max_dd:.2f} ({max_dd_pct:.1f}%)')
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print(f'Current Equity: ${trades_timeline["cumulative_profit"].iloc[-1]:.2f}')
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print(f'Peak Equity: ${trades_timeline["running_max"].max():.2f}')
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print()
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# ==========================================
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# 8. TOP TRADES
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# ==========================================
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print('=' * 80)
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print('8️⃣ TOP 5 BEST TRADES')
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print('-' * 80)
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best_trades = pd.read_sql_query('''
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SELECT
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DATE(entry_time) as date,
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session,
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quality,
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ROUND(confidence, 1) as conf,
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volume,
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ROUND(net_profit, 2) as profit
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FROM trades
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ORDER BY net_profit DESC
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LIMIT 5
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''', conn)
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print(best_trades.to_string(index=False))
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print()
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print('=' * 80)
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print('9️⃣ TOP 5 WORST TRADES')
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print('-' * 80)
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worst_trades = pd.read_sql_query('''
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SELECT
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DATE(entry_time) as date,
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session,
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quality,
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ROUND(confidence, 1) as conf,
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volume,
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ROUND(net_profit, 2) as profit
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FROM trades
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ORDER BY net_profit ASC
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LIMIT 5
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''', conn)
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print(worst_trades.to_string(index=False))
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print()
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conn.close()
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print('=' * 80)
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print('✅ ANALYSE ABGESCHLOSSEN')
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print('=' * 80)
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