438 lines
14 KiB
Python
438 lines
14 KiB
Python
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#!/usr/bin/env python3
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"""
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🎯 Dynamic Confidence Threshold Optimizer
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Passt Confidence Threshold automatisch basierend auf Performance an
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FEATURES:
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1. Win Rate Tracking (letzte N Trades)
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2. Automatische Threshold-Anpassung
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3. Session-spezifische Optimization
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4. Performance-basiertes Learning
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"""
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import sqlite3
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import pandas as pd
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from datetime import datetime, timedelta
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from typing import Dict, Optional, Tuple
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import json
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class DynamicThresholdOptimizer:
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"""
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Optimiert Confidence Threshold basierend auf tatsächlicher Performance
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Logik:
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- Hohe Win Rate → Senke Threshold (mehr Trades)
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- Niedrige Win Rate → Erhöhe Threshold (nur beste Setups)
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- Adaptiert sich automatisch an Marktbedingungen
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"""
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def __init__(self,
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db_path: str = "trading_bot.db",
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lookback_trades: int = 20,
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target_win_rate: float = 0.60,
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min_threshold: int = 60,
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max_threshold: int = 95,
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adjustment_step: int = 5):
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"""
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Args:
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db_path: Pfad zur Trading Database
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lookback_trades: Wie viele Trades für Berechnung (default: 20)
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target_win_rate: Ziel Win Rate (default: 60%)
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min_threshold: Minimum Confidence Threshold (default: 60%)
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max_threshold: Maximum Confidence Threshold (default: 95%)
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adjustment_step: Schritte für Anpassung (default: 5%)
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"""
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self.db_path = db_path
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self.lookback_trades = lookback_trades
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self.target_win_rate = target_win_rate
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self.min_threshold = min_threshold
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self.max_threshold = max_threshold
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self.adjustment_step = adjustment_step
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# Cache für Session-spezifische Thresholds
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self.session_thresholds = {
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'asian': 70,
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'ny': 70,
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'london': 70,
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'overlap': 70
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}
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print(f"✅ Dynamic Threshold Optimizer initialized")
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print(f" Lookback: {lookback_trades} trades")
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print(f" Target Win Rate: {target_win_rate*100:.1f}%")
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print(f" Range: {min_threshold}% - {max_threshold}%")
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def get_recent_performance(self, session: Optional[str] = None) -> Dict:
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"""
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Holt Performance der letzten N Trades
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Args:
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session: Optional - nur für diese Session (asian/ny/london/overlap)
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Returns:
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Dict mit Performance-Metriken
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"""
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try:
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conn = sqlite3.connect(self.db_path)
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# Query für letzte N Trades
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query = f"""
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SELECT
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confidence,
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session,
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net_profit,
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CASE WHEN net_profit > 0 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END as win
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FROM trades
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WHERE status = 'closed'
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"""
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if session:
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query += f" AND session = '{session}'"
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query += f" ORDER BY exit_time DESC LIMIT {self.lookback_trades}"
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df = pd.read_sql_query(query, conn)
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conn.close()
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if df.empty:
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return {
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'trades': 0,
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'win_rate': 0.0,
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'avg_confidence': 0.0,
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'total_profit': 0.0,
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'recommendation': 'insufficient_data'
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}
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trades = len(df)
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wins = df['win'].sum()
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win_rate = wins / trades if trades > 0 else 0.0
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avg_confidence = df['confidence'].mean()
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total_profit = df['net_profit'].sum()
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return {
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'trades': trades,
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'wins': wins,
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'losses': trades - wins,
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'win_rate': win_rate,
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'avg_confidence': avg_confidence,
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'total_profit': total_profit,
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'recommendation': self._get_recommendation(win_rate)
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}
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except Exception as e:
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print(f"❌ Error getting performance: {e}")
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return {
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'trades': 0,
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'win_rate': 0.0,
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'avg_confidence': 0.0,
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'total_profit': 0.0,
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'recommendation': 'error'
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}
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def _get_recommendation(self, win_rate: float) -> str:
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"""Gibt Empfehlung basierend auf Win Rate"""
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if win_rate >= 0.70:
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return "excellent" # Sehr gut - kann aggressiver werden
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elif win_rate >= 0.60:
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return "good" # Gut - am Target
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elif win_rate >= 0.50:
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return "moderate" # OK - leicht konservativer
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elif win_rate >= 0.40:
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return "poor" # Schlecht - deutlich konservativer
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else:
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return "critical" # Kritisch - sehr konservativ
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def calculate_optimal_threshold(self, session: Optional[str] = None) -> Tuple[int, str]:
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"""
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Berechnet optimalen Confidence Threshold
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Args:
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session: Optional - für diese Session
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Returns:
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(optimal_threshold, reason)
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"""
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perf = self.get_recent_performance(session)
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if perf['trades'] < 10:
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return (70, f"Insufficient data ({perf['trades']} trades), using default 70%")
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current_threshold = self.session_thresholds.get(session, 70) if session else 70
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win_rate = perf['win_rate']
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# Berechne Anpassung basierend auf Win Rate
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if win_rate >= 0.70:
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# Exzellent - senke Threshold für mehr Trades
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adjustment = -self.adjustment_step * 2 # -10%
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reason = f"Excellent WR {win_rate*100:.1f}% → Lower threshold for more trades"
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elif win_rate >= 0.65:
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# Sehr gut - leicht senken
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adjustment = -self.adjustment_step # -5%
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reason = f"Very good WR {win_rate*100:.1f}% → Slightly lower threshold"
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elif win_rate >= 0.55:
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# Gut - bleibe oder leicht senken
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adjustment = 0
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reason = f"Good WR {win_rate*100:.1f}% → Maintain threshold"
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elif win_rate >= 0.50:
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# OK - leicht erhöhen
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adjustment = self.adjustment_step # +5%
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reason = f"Moderate WR {win_rate*100:.1f}% → Slightly raise threshold"
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elif win_rate >= 0.40:
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# Schlecht - deutlich erhöhen
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adjustment = self.adjustment_step * 2 # +10%
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reason = f"Poor WR {win_rate*100:.1f}% → Raise threshold significantly"
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else:
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# Kritisch - stark erhöhen
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adjustment = self.adjustment_step * 3 # +15%
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reason = f"Critical WR {win_rate*100:.1f}% → Raise threshold aggressively"
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# Neuer Threshold
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new_threshold = current_threshold + adjustment
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# Clamp zu min/max
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new_threshold = max(self.min_threshold, min(self.max_threshold, new_threshold))
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return (new_threshold, reason)
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def update_session_threshold(self, session: str) -> Dict:
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"""
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Updated Threshold für eine Session
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Args:
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session: Session Name (asian/ny/london/overlap)
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Returns:
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Dict mit Update-Info
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"""
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old_threshold = self.session_thresholds.get(session, 70)
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new_threshold, reason = self.calculate_optimal_threshold(session)
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self.session_thresholds[session] = new_threshold
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perf = self.get_recent_performance(session)
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return {
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'session': session,
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'old_threshold': old_threshold,
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'new_threshold': new_threshold,
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'change': new_threshold - old_threshold,
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'reason': reason,
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'recent_trades': perf['trades'],
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'win_rate': perf['win_rate'],
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'avg_confidence': perf['avg_confidence'],
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'total_profit': perf['total_profit']
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}
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def optimize_all_sessions(self) -> Dict[str, Dict]:
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"""
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Optimiert Thresholds für alle Sessions
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Returns:
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Dict mit Updates für jede Session
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"""
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results = {}
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for session in ['asian', 'ny', 'london', 'overlap']:
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results[session] = self.update_session_threshold(session)
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return results
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def get_threshold_for_session(self, session: str) -> int:
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"""
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Holt aktuellen Threshold für Session
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Args:
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session: Session Name
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Returns:
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Confidence Threshold (%)
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"""
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return self.session_thresholds.get(session, 70)
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def generate_report(self) -> str:
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"""
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Erstellt Optimization Report
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Returns:
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Formatted Report String
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"""
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report = []
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report.append("=" * 70)
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report.append("🎯 DYNAMIC THRESHOLD OPTIMIZATION REPORT")
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report.append("=" * 70)
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report.append(f"\nGenerated: {datetime.now().strftime('%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S')}")
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report.append(f"Lookback: {self.lookback_trades} trades")
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report.append(f"Target Win Rate: {self.target_win_rate*100:.1f}%")
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report.append("")
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for session in ['asian', 'ny', 'london', 'overlap']:
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perf = self.get_recent_performance(session)
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threshold = self.session_thresholds[session]
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if perf['trades'] < 5:
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continue
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report.append(f"\n{'='*70}")
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report.append(f"📊 {session.upper()} SESSION")
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report.append(f"{'='*70}")
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report.append(f"Recent Trades: {perf['trades']}")
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report.append(f"Win Rate: {perf['win_rate']*100:.1f}% ({perf['wins']}W / {perf['losses']}L)")
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report.append(f"Avg Confidence: {perf['avg_confidence']:.1f}%")
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report.append(f"Total Profit: ${perf['total_profit']:.2f}")
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report.append(f"Performance: {perf['recommendation'].upper()}")
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report.append(f"\nCurrent Threshold: {threshold}%")
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# Recommendation
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new_threshold, reason = self.calculate_optimal_threshold(session)
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if new_threshold != threshold:
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change = new_threshold - threshold
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emoji = "🔽" if change < 0 else "🔼"
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report.append(f"Recommended: {new_threshold}% ({emoji} {abs(change):+d}%)")
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report.append(f"Reason: {reason}")
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else:
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report.append(f"Recommended: Keep at {threshold}% ✅")
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report.append("\n" + "=" * 70)
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report.append("✅ Optimization Complete")
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report.append("=" * 70)
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return "\n".join(report)
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def save_thresholds_to_config(self, config_file: str = "dynamic_thresholds.json"):
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"""
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Speichert optimierte Thresholds in JSON-Datei
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Args:
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config_file: Output Datei
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"""
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config = {
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'timestamp': datetime.now().isoformat(),
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'session_thresholds': self.session_thresholds,
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'settings': {
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'lookback_trades': self.lookback_trades,
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'target_win_rate': self.target_win_rate,
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'min_threshold': self.min_threshold,
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'max_threshold': self.max_threshold
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}
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}
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with open(config_file, 'w') as f:
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json.dump(config, f, indent=2)
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print(f"✅ Thresholds saved to: {config_file}")
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# ==========================================
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# AUTO-OPTIMIZATION SCHEDULER
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# ==========================================
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def auto_optimize_thresholds(optimizer: DynamicThresholdOptimizer,
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apply_changes: bool = False) -> Dict:
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"""
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Automatische Optimization (für Scheduler)
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Args:
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optimizer: DynamicThresholdOptimizer Instanz
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apply_changes: Wenn True, werden Änderungen angewendet
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Returns:
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Optimization Results
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"""
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print(f"\n{'='*70}")
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print(f"🔄 AUTO-OPTIMIZATION STARTED - {datetime.now().strftime('%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S')}")
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print(f"{'='*70}\n")
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results = optimizer.optimize_all_sessions()
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# Print Summary
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for session, info in results.items():
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if info['recent_trades'] < 5:
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continue
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change_emoji = "🔽" if info['change'] < 0 else ("🔼" if info['change'] > 0 else "➡️")
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print(f"{session.upper():8s}: {info['old_threshold']}% → {info['new_threshold']}% "
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f"{change_emoji} | WR: {info['win_rate']*100:.1f}% ({info['recent_trades']} trades)")
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if apply_changes:
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optimizer.save_thresholds_to_config()
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print("\n✅ Changes applied and saved!")
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else:
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print("\n⚠️ Dry-run mode - changes NOT applied")
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print(f"\n{'='*70}\n")
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return results
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# ==========================================
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# USAGE EXAMPLE
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# ==========================================
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"""
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INTEGRATION IN NOTEBOOK:
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# Cell: Setup Dynamic Optimizer
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from dynamic_threshold_optimizer import DynamicThresholdOptimizer, auto_optimize_thresholds
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# Initialize Optimizer
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threshold_optimizer = DynamicThresholdOptimizer(
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db_path="trading_bot.db",
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lookback_trades=20, # Letzte 20 Trades
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target_win_rate=0.60, # 60% Target
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min_threshold=60, # Minimum 60%
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max_threshold=95 # Maximum 95%
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)
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print("✅ Dynamic Threshold Optimizer activated!")
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# Cell: Manual Optimization (run when you want)
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# Generate Report
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print(threshold_optimizer.generate_report())
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# Apply Optimization
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results = auto_optimize_thresholds(threshold_optimizer, apply_changes=True)
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# Cell: Use in Trading Logic
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# Get optimized threshold for current session
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session = rhythm_manager.get_current_session()
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optimal_threshold = threshold_optimizer.get_threshold_for_session(session)
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print(f"Using threshold: {optimal_threshold}% for {session.upper()} session")
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# Use in execute_trade_v2_adaptive
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execute_trade_v2_adaptive(
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symbol="XAUUSD",
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base_confidence=optimal_threshold, # ← Dynamic!
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...
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)
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# Cell: Add to Scheduler (auto-optimize daily)
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scheduler.add_job(
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func=lambda: auto_optimize_thresholds(threshold_optimizer, apply_changes=True),
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trigger='cron',
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hour=0, # Run at midnight
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id='threshold_optimization'
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)
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print("✅ Auto-optimization scheduled (daily at midnight)")
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"""
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if __name__ == "__main__":
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# Test
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optimizer = DynamicThresholdOptimizer()
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print(optimizer.generate_report())
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