Add watchdog for missed launchd runs, fix backup path bug + retention

Watchdog (scripts/utils/watchdog.py, com.lotto.watchdog.plist, daily
21:30) checks whether the latest draw or the trained models are older
than the launchd schedule allows and sends a Telegram alert - this
would have caught the Aug 15 update run that silently never fired
(the Mac was presumably asleep; launchd does not retry missed
StartCalendarInterval jobs), instead of that only surfacing on the
next manual check.

Also fixes a real path bug in LottoAPIUpdater.create_backup(): since
self.data_file already points into data/, joining "data","backups"
wrote backups to data/data/backups/ instead of data/backups/ - 73
backups (6.3MB) had been piling up there undetected for months, with
data/data/ only ever gitignored rather than the root cause fixed.
Merges the misplaced backups into the correct location and adds
retention (keep last 30) so backups no longer grow unbounded; applied
the same retention to Eurojackpot's updater in a matching commit
there, which didn't have the path bug but had the same unbounded
growth (85 backups, 2.4MB).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

scripts/utils/update_from_api.py

@@ -91,7 +91,7 @@ class LottoAPIUpdater:
             return False
 
     def create_backup(self) -> bool:
-        """Erstellt Backup."""
+        """Erstellt Backup und behält nur die letzten KEEP_BACKUPS Stück."""
         if not os.path.exists(self.data_file):
             return True
 
@@ -99,7 +99,10 @@ class LottoAPIUpdater:
             print("\n💾 Erstelle Backup...")
 
             timestamp = datetime.now().strftime("%Y%m%d_%H%M%S")
-            backup_dir = os.path.join(os.path.dirname(self.data_file), "data", "backups")
+            # self.data_file liegt bereits unter .../data/ - vorher wurde hier
+            # zusätzlich "data" angehängt, was seit Monaten ungenutzt nach
+            # .../data/data/backups/ statt .../data/backups/ geschrieben hat.
+            backup_dir = os.path.join(os.path.dirname(self.data_file), "backups")
             os.makedirs(backup_dir, exist_ok=True)
 
             filename = os.path.basename(self.data_file)
@@ -108,12 +111,28 @@ class LottoAPIUpdater:
             shutil.copy2(self.data_file, self.backup_file)
             print(f"   ✅ Backup: {os.path.basename(self.backup_file)}")
 
+            self._prune_old_backups(backup_dir, filename)
+
             return True
 
         except Exception as e:
             print(f"   ⚠️  Backup-Fehler: {e}")
             return False
 
+    @staticmethod
+    def _prune_old_backups(backup_dir: str, filename: str, keep: int = 30) -> None:
+        """Behält nur die KEEP neuesten Backups, löscht den Rest."""
+        pattern = f"{filename}.backup_"
+        backups = sorted(
+            (f for f in os.listdir(backup_dir) if f.startswith(pattern)),
+            reverse=True,
+        )
+        for old in backups[keep:]:
+            try:
+                os.remove(os.path.join(backup_dir, old))
+            except OSError:
+                pass
+
     def fetch_from_api(self, api_name: str) -> List[Dict]:
         """
         Holt Daten von spezifischer API.