Add watchdog for missed launchd runs, fix backup path bug + retention

Watchdog (scripts/utils/watchdog.py, com.lotto.watchdog.plist, daily
21:30) checks whether the latest draw or the trained models are older
than the launchd schedule allows and sends a Telegram alert - this
would have caught the Aug 15 update run that silently never fired
(the Mac was presumably asleep; launchd does not retry missed
StartCalendarInterval jobs), instead of that only surfacing on the
next manual check.

Also fixes a real path bug in LottoAPIUpdater.create_backup(): since
self.data_file already points into data/, joining "data","backups"
wrote backups to data/data/backups/ instead of data/backups/ - 73
backups (6.3MB) had been piling up there undetected for months, with
data/data/ only ever gitignored rather than the root cause fixed.
Merges the misplaced backups into the correct location and adds
retention (keep last 30) so backups no longer grow unbounded; applied
the same retention to Eurojackpot's updater in a matching commit
there, which didn't have the path bug but had the same unbounded
growth (85 backups, 2.4MB).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

scripts/utils/notifier.py

@@ -265,6 +265,36 @@ class LottoNotifier:
         # TODO: Email-Versand implementieren wenn gewünscht
         print("⚠️  Email-Benachrichtigung noch nicht implementiert")
 
+    def send_alert(self, message: str) -> bool:
+        """Sendet eine formlose Warn-/Alarm-Nachricht (z.B. vom Watchdog)."""
+        if not self.config['telegram']['enabled']:
+            print("⚠️  Telegram nicht aktiviert in config/notifications.json")
+            return False
+
+        try:
+            bot_token = self.config['telegram']['bot_token']
+            chat_id = self.config['telegram']['chat_id']
+
+            url = f"https://api.telegram.org/bot{bot_token}/sendMessage"
+            data = {
+                "chat_id": chat_id,
+                "text": message,
+                "parse_mode": "Markdown"
+            }
+
+            response = requests.post(url, data=data, timeout=10)
+
+            if response.status_code == 200:
+                print("✅ Alarm-Benachrichtigung gesendet")
+                return True
+            else:
+                print(f"⚠️  Telegram-Fehler: {response.status_code}")
+                return False
+
+        except Exception as e:
+            print(f"⚠️  Alarm-Benachrichtigung fehlgeschlagen: {e}")
+            return False
+
     def send_test_notification(self):
         """Sendet Test-Benachrichtigung."""
         if self.config['telegram']['enabled']: